SMM January 30:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,027/mt. During the Asian session, the US dollar index fell sharply, and LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $2,060/mt. Entering the European session, it fluctuated between $2,040/mt and $2,060/mt, gave up all gains by the close, and continued to decline, touching a low of $2,005.5/mt, nearly breaking below the key 2,000 level. It finally closed at $2,011/mt, down $16/mt or 0.79%, marking two consecutive bearish candlesticks.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,195 yuan/mt. Early in the session, boosted by broad gains in nonferrous metals, SHFE lead briefly rose to above 17,300 yuan/mt. Later, dragged down by the decline in LME lead and weak fundamentals, SHFE lead gave up all gains and fell below the 17,000 yuan/mt level again. It finally closed at 16,975 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt or 1.22%, forming a large bearish candlestick.
Downstream battery producers, due to poor sales orders, have low production enthusiasm. Currently, raw material procurement is mainly for long-term contract cargo pick-up, with low spot order purchase willingness; some plan to take holidays around February 10. Due to difficult spot lead ingot sales, both primary lead and secondary refined lead are sold at a discount to the SMM #1 lead price; secondary refined lead supply lacks a transaction advantage, and smelters are experiencing widespread production cuts or halts. In summary, be cautious of the drag on lead price trends from the supply and demand decline scenario.
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